UEFA EURO 2020 moving back a year is significant for every team but its implications for England are enormous. In combination with the approaching World Cup in Qatar, the delay will have an impact on the end of Gareth Southgate’s time in charge of the national side.
Should England falter, Southgate’s position will be questioned – presumably even by the man himself – but the shortened cycle could allow a stay of execution. Should they succeed, will his moment to depart on a high be missed because he and the FA decide instead to roll into the winter of 2022 intact?
EURO 2020 is the ultimate test of England’s ability to really make a mark on a tournament. What they did at World Cup 2018 is underestimated in hindsight, the luck of the draw given far too much credit for an England campaign that exorcised ghosts. Losing to Sweden or being beaten on penalties by Colombia would have been quintessentially English.
England weren’t ready to win that World Cup. Southgate and his staff achieved steady progress with a group of capable footballers but the cutting edge was never there.
Three years on, England have now beaten a handful of teams said to be superior. Better yet, Southgate has at his disposal a generation of attacking talent with unlimited tournament potential.
The question mark over Southgate in the last eighteen months has been one of balance and intent. Where a less conservative manager might go all in on England’s exceptional attacking talents, Southgate has instead sought to compensate for their defensive weaknesses.
The hope is that a string of unambitious performances against mediocre opponents have been adequate practice for big matches in which solidity is required against good ones – England might be an attacking force but against the best teams in Europe it’ll be vital to stay in the game.
Southgate is not a man for excuses and they would be few and far between this summer even if he were. EURO 2020 is effectively a home tournament for England, who will play all three Group D matches at Wembley.
Win the group and they’ll be at Wembley again in the Round of 16 followed by a quarter-final in Rome. Finish second and it’s Copenhagen and then on to Saint Petersburg in the last eight. Even a third-placed finish could offer a potential route to the semi-finals at Wembley.
Leading his team out for a semi-final back in London is the benchmark for Southgate this summer. He begins EURO 2020 with glory, catastrophe and everything in between still up for grabs. He has the players required to make history and that is the expectation now realistically placed upon him. Realistic, but not easy.
Southgate’s 26-man England squad announcement was received with all the usual good grace of football fans on social media but the headline analysis should be crystal clear: it is a very, very good squad.
It’s a young squad, too. Phil Foden is barely a week over 21 and looks to be one of Europe’s brightest players. Bukayo Saka is 19, Jude Bellingham only 17, and none of these players have been drafted in to make up the numbers or learn the ropes in preparation for the future.
By selecting Kieran Trippier, Reece James, Kyle Walker and Trent Alexander-Arnold, Southgate has invited the inevitable scrutiny that comes with including four right backs. It gives him a degree of tactical flexibility in the position but it’s unlikely that England will use them all.
Skipper Harry Kane and Dominic Calvert-Lewin are the only strikers in the squad despite the three bonus spots, leaving Ollie Watkins out in the cold and placing England at the mercy of the injury gods. Marcus Rashford becomes a key deputy at centre forward.
Existing injuries have given Southgate cause for concern but three vital players have made the cut despite recent absences.
Harry Maguire is not a certainty to be available for the first match but Tyrone Mings offers more than adequate cover, while Southgate’s midfield selections mean he has no need to sweat over the match fitness of the influential Jordan Henderson. Jack Grealish returned to the Aston Villa fold in the nick of time.
England start the tournament as second favourites behind France, with odds available in the 4/1 and 5/1 range across the board, but it’s not until their opening game against Croatia – Southgate’s bridge too far in Russia three years ago – that we’ll have a slightly better picture of England’s prospects.
Croatia have made a modest start to 2021. A 1-0 win over Cyprus and a 3-0 win against Malta in World Cup qualifying were preceded by defeat to Slovenia in their first match. Moscow must have felt a long way from Ljubljana that night but Croatia top their World Cup group after three games.
The next visitors to Wembley will be Scotland. They defeated England in vain in a EURO 2000 play-off there but have failed to beat them since; indeed, that was Scotland’s first victory over England since the middle of 1985. Under Steve Clarke they have made an unbeaten start to 2021, following their draining play-off triumph late last year with draws against Austria and Israel in their World Cup qualifying group. The Faroe Islands were thrashed 4-0.
England’s last group game pits them against the Czech Republic, who began World Cup qualifying with a 6-2 win in Estonia, a draw with Belgium in Prague and an away loss against Wales. The last time they faced England was in qualification for this very tournament, a match that ended in defeat for Southgate’s side.
His preparation continues this week with friendlies against Austria (Wednesday) and Romania (Sunday) at Middlesbrough’s Riverside Stadium. It’s imperative that anything and everything that’s giving the manager pause for thought is ironed out in those 180 minutes.
With less than two weeks to go, his challenge is simple to understand and difficult to meet: Southgate must squeeze the dangerous and dynamic best from one of the country’s most exciting attacking cohorts to date.
If he can do that then England have half a chance and his time as the national team manager will become legendary. If he can’t or won’t, 2018 will fade from memory as a hazy summer that counted for nothing.
The next six weeks will define Southgate’s England forever and he has his destiny in his own hands. He has the players, the pace, the creativity, the goals, the flexibility, the options, the team spirit, the attitude – and the pressure.
The only thing he doesn’t have is a compelling reason to fail.
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Chris Nee
@SphinxFtbl